President Donald Trump extended a deadline for Iran to ensure commercial shipping passes safely through the Strait of Hormuz, saying Monday the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants for five days.
Activity throughout the conflict-ridden waterway remains minimal, according to analysis from ship tracking intelligence firm MarineTraffic. On Sunday, only two vessel crossings were recorded, while seven crossings on Saturday were primarily linked to internationally sanctioned vessels and shadow fleet ships.
Oil prices sank more than 10 percent Monday morning after President Trump suggested that U.S. and Iranian representatives had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”
However, Iran’s foreign ministry denied any talks with the U.S., saying it did not respond to American requests for such negotiations to take place.
“Iran’s position has not changed,” the Iranian official said. “As for the Strait of Hormuz, we reaffirm that this passage will remain closed to aggressors.”
Outside the Strait of Hormuz, the container industry is adjusting to the near-cessation of activity in the area, which has seen most major ocean carriers scrap bookings to the Persian Gulf entirely.
A Monday update from container shipping consultancy Linerlytica highlighted that more carriers are reestablishing intra-Gulf feeders and India-to-Northern U.A.E./Oman services to maintain cargo flow to the Persian Gulf region.
One carrier, GT Lines, launched a revised India-Sharjah Express (ISX) service connecting Indian ports Mundra and Nhava Sheva to the Khor Fakkan Port, which lies on the east coast of the U.A.E. The service will operate three ships carrying roughly 1,000 containers each, updating a previously suspended iteration that had scrapped a stop at the Sharjah Port on the U.A.E.’s west coast after the war began.
Ports in India have become more attractive options for shippers amid the uncertainty in the Middle East.
“Shippers would rather have their cargo dwelling in Nhava Sheva than stuck in the port of origin,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, in a Monday morning update. “The trade from China to Nhava Sheva is a textbook example of the ripple effects caused by a crisis like this.”
Freight rates for cargo flowing into the India port have soared since the start of the conflict. According to data from Xeneta, market average spot rates on the China-to-Nhava Sheva route have accelerated nearly 70 percent in the month prior to Friday, reaching $2,305 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU).
Market mid-high spot rate nearly doubled, up 98 percent to $2,936 per FEU. The market mid-low spot rate has increased by a lesser 51 percent to $1,765 per container.
“The real story is in the spread,” Sand said. “The widening spread between the lower and higher end of the spot market tells you there is a fight for capacity, with shippers who desperately need their cargo to move willing to pay top dollar to do so.”
As of Monday, Nhava Sheva Port and Mundra Port both have congestion levels of 66.7 percent, the freight benchmarking platform says. Xeneta’s congestion ratio calculates the number of ships waiting to call at the port divided by the total number of vessels already docked.
These outpace the ratios of other gateways in Southeast Asia, including major transshipment hubs including the Port of Colombo (47.6 percent) in Sri Lanka, and Malaysia’s Port Klang (54.3 percent) and the Port of Tanjung Pelepas (52 percent).
While freight rates have increased over the past month as ships were frozen out of their normal service and more buildup occurs at certain ports, Linerlytica indicated the rate increases have begun to ease across the board as the initial impact on ships delayed by the Middle East disruptions are offset by the redeployment of surplus ships into new routes.
“Capacity utilization across all key trade lanes remains well below the level needed to support the carriers’ announced rate hikes, forcing the mid-March rate hikes to be rolled back,” said Linerlytica in its Monday update. “Initial feedback on the new trans-Pacific contracts that have been concluded suggest that rates have mostly been maintained at last year’s levels but will be subject to higher bunker surcharges.”
As the Middle East conflict reshapes shipping corridors and sparks concerns of fuel costs, FedEx is appearing to shrug off any serious impacts to its business.
FedEx assumes a modest headwind tied to business impact in the Middle East, the company revealed in its third quarter earnings call. But overall, the region comprises a relatively small part of the company’s revenue, said CEO Raj Subramaniam.
Globally, FedEx is not expecting material impact because of the Middle East conflict, according to Subramaniam.
“At this point, we are assuming that the broader global demand from Q3 continues into Q4,” said Subramaniam. “Our first two weeks of March essentially are in line with that trend.”
