Global air cargo rates staged a modest recovery in the week of March 2 to 8, 2026, climbing back to $2.40 per kilogram after falling sharply in the preceding two-week period, but the rebound masked continued weakness on African and Middle Eastern corridors as the fallout from the Iran conflict continued to reshape international freight networks.
Data published by WorldACD Market Data on March 12, covering the five weeks through Week 10 of 2026, shows the worldwide average rate recovered from a low of $2.26 per kilogram in the week of February 23 to March 1 to reach $2.40, though this remained below the $2.49 recorded in the week of February 9 to 15. On a two-week-on-two-week basis, worldwide rates fell 4 per cent, while chargeable weight declined 7 per cent and capacity dropped 10 per cent, indicating that the market disruption initiated by the conflict continues to suppress overall activity levels.
Africa emerged as one of the weakest performing origin regions in the five-week period. Capacity from African origins fell 14 per cent on the two-week comparison and 2 per cent year on year, while chargeable weight dropped 21 per cent over the five-week period and 10 per cent year on year. Despite the volume weakness, Africa-origin rates edged up 9 per cent year on year, suggesting that the sharp fall in available uplift from African corridors has provided some support to pricing even as overall shipment volumes declined.
The Middle East and South Asia corridor remained the most severely disrupted origin region globally. Capacity from Middle Eastern origins collapsed 40 per cent over the five-week period and 35 per cent year on year, while chargeable weight fell 29 per cent over five weeks and 23 per cent year on year. Rates from the region rose 14 per cent year on year, reflecting the scarcity premium now embedded in available capacity on Gulf-connected routes.
Europe-origin corridors recorded the strongest rate performance, with a 13 per cent year-on-year gain on a two-week basis, consistent with airlines continuing to reroute Asia-Europe cargo via Central Asian technical stops as Gulf airspace restrictions remained in effect. Asia Pacific origins saw chargeable weight decline 9 per cent year on year and capacity fall 7 per cent, reinforcing the disruption to the Asia-Europe corridor that has been the defining feature of the market since the conflict began on February 28.
Before the conflict erupted, February’s data had been broadly encouraging, with global air cargo demand rising 6 per cent year on year, spot rates recording their first monthly increase since May 2025, and the dynamic load factor rising two percentage points to 62 per cent. The speed with which those gains were erased underlines the sector’s exposure to geopolitical disruption, particularly along the Gulf transit corridors that handle a significant share of Asia-Europe and Africa-Europe intercontinental freight.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has noted that the resilience of air cargo will continue to be tested in the coming months, with the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East weighing heavily on global supply chains alongside the long-running uncertainties of evolving United States trade policies.
For African exporters moving perishables, minerals and manufactured goods through Gulf hub connections, the sustained capacity disruption presents both a logistics challenge and a cost pressure that is unlikely to ease until normal flight operations across Middle Eastern airspace resume.
