Container shipping has less to lose from the Iran conflict compared to other shipping sectors, but it cannot escape disruption and higher costs. It is the latest in a long series of industry disruptions.
Container shipping stocks were up on Monday (2 March 2026) following the joint US and Israeli military strikes on Iran that has added yet another layer of uncertainty into world politics and trade prospects.
This emphasizes that the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf have lesser operational significance than in other shipping sectors, such as tankers, and that disruption in a heavily over-supplied market such as containers, is a net positive for operators.
According to Drewry’s AIS intelligence data, as of Sunday 1 March, 158 containerships with a combined capacity of 691 kteu, were present in the Middle East in either the Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea or Persian Gulf (see table). This capacity represents only 2.1% of the current active containership fleet.
While Iran has no legal authority to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and handles roughly one-quarter of the world’s trade in oil, the start of military hostility across the region has effectively made it a no-go zone for all shipping.
The effective closure of the Strait is very bad news for Iranian business as it depends on it for oil revenues. The longer the war goes on, Iran’s ability to fund military action will come under serious strain.
However, while Iran’s ability to fight might have limitations, we cannot predict how long the situation will last. As such, our analysis here is restricted to short-term impacts on the container shipping market:
A return to Suez Canal transits delayed
One immediate consequence is that container lines will delay plans to phase back to Suez Canal transits and will, instead, revert to Cape of Good Hope diversions. As such, the immediate threat of latent capacity being gradually restored to the market has evaporated for now, hence the uptick in carrier share prices. Ocean carriers tend to make more money when shipping supply is disrupted.
Gulf ports out of action
Operators and shipowners are treating the Strait, and neighbouring waters, as a high-risk zone and have stopped bookings and warned of significant delays as they recalibrate routes. Exporters, importers and logistics companies will likely switch the routing of Gulf origin and destination cargoes from the current sea route to trucking+sea or sea+trucking, using Omani, UAE or Saudi ports located outside the Gulf.
Higher transportation costs
Heightened violence and attacks on commercial vessels have compelled war risk insurers to act. Many underwriters have cancelled existing policies for ships planning to pass through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while those willing to underwrite voyages are demanding massive premium increases. These War Risk premiums will inflate operating costs and carriers will attempt to pass these on to shippers via “war surcharges”.
More congestion and delays
Conflict in the Middle East will amplify scheduling disruptions not only in the region, but elsewhere too. Ports could experience significant backlogs as vessels cluster outside of the conflict zone or arrive unplanned, creating equipment shortages. These types of delays will reduce overall network capacity, which often results in higher spot rates on major trade lanes. Shippers and the shipping industry will, as with previous disruptions, adapt.
Energy cost inflation
Rising oil prices will add to shipping costs through higher bunker surcharges, which could be passed downstream to manufacturers and consumers. This could dent demand for containerised goods worldwide.
Our view
The ongoing conflict will create systemic disruption to the container shipping world: bottlenecks, rerouting, rising insurance and freight costs, and broader uncertainty across global supply chains. The depth and duration of these effects will hinge on how long hostilities persist.
Source: Drewry
