Daily shipping disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have companies scrambling to find workarounds for the current situation and to figure out the longer-term supply chain implications.
Here is a roundup of some analysis:
Shipping Delays – On March 2nd, major shipping companies have either restricted or halted bookings, as reported by NBC. Companies include Maersk, MSC Group, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO and Emirates SkyCargo.
Transportation and Warehousing Effect – On March 5, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) offered an analysis of the disruptions, noting that the disruption will depend on where their primary ocean routes are.
“Those not in the affected regions will have similar pricing opportunities that they implemented during the coronavirus pandemic, with container prices escalating significantly,” says Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
“Those with assets in the region will have the additional costs to move those assets, as well as the additional time and cost impacts for having to run alternative routes.” Due to longer transit times, more assets will be required to move the same freight — assets likely priced at a premium — and additional security costs.
Insurance Cancelled — Several leading mutual marine insurers, including Norway’s Gard and Skuld, the UK’s NorthStandard and the London P&I Club, and the New York-based American Club, said they were cancelling war risk cover for ships operating in the region. This is according to The Guardian.
President Orders Insurance Coverage
On 5 March, various members of the London-based International Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs will automatically terminate war-risk cover if vessels enter the Persian Gulf, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
These moves have caused President Trump to call for US-backed insurance to provide political risk insurance to all shipping lines. CBS News is reporting that the administration has asked the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, or DFC, to provide this coverage.
UPS, DHS Using Contingency Plans
As reported by CEP-Research, UPS confirmed to CEP-Research that it is rerouting flights and making network changes to keep shipments moving, minimizing customer impacts. “Our priority is the safety of our people. We are closely monitoring the evolving situation and have activated established contingency plans to manage our operations safely and efficiently,” the carrier said in a statement.
The integrator has not detailed specific country suspensions but acknowledged that service guarantees do not apply to shipments affected by the disruption. Customers have been directed to track packages online for the most up-to-date status information.
For UPS, whose air operations rely on overflight rights and hub connectivity across the Gulf, the closure of multiple airspaces presents operational complexity. Aircraft are being rerouted along longer corridors, increasing block times and fuel burn.
DHL has similarly activated contingency plans as air and maritime restrictions intensify. In a statement to CEP-Research, DHL said: “We are monitoring developments in Iran and the region very closely. The safety of our employees is our highest priority. Several airspaces in the region are currently closed, and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been temporarily suspended. We have experience with dynamic and rapidly changing scenarios and can adjust routing or offer alternative transport solutions for our customers accordingly, even on short notice.”
Higher Consumer Prices Due to Disruption
With cargo ships stuck in the Gulf, and planes grounded, the result will be higher prices for consumers, as reported on March 5 by the Associated Press.
“This is really causing some major impacts within the global supply chain,” said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University. “As this conflict keeps progressing, you’ll start to see some shortages, you’ll see some major price increases.”
The news agency referenced a survey from Clarksons Research, which tracks shipping data, which “estimates that about 3,200 ships, or about 4% of global ship tonnage, are idle inside the Persian Gulf, but that includes about 1,231 that likely only operate within the Gulf. About 500 ships, or 1% of global tonnage, are currently “waiting” outside the Gulf in ports off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and Oman.”
Container Impact
Freightos offered this analysis:
Container impacts remain mostly local for now, with gulf-bound cargo piling up and threatening yard congestion in India; diverted in-transit containers will start being offloaded at Singapore, Malaysia and Sri Lanka transhipment hubs, though lower volumes and greater port capacity than in early 2024 should limit congestion severity compared to the start of the Red Sea crisis.
The disruptions have not impacted rates on the main east-west trades, where prices have remained unchanged since last week. But for directly impacted containers rates are climbing: CMA CGM has introduced a $3,000/FEU emergency surcharge for Gulf-bound cargo and Freightos Terminal Shanghai-Jebel Ali rates doubled to over $4,000/FEU by Tuesday; climbing fuel costs combined with capacity and equipment constraints could extend rate hikes to non-Gulf lanes if the conflict stretches on.
Air Cargo
Freightos offered this analysis:
Air cargo faces more immediate and significant disruption: Gulf carrier hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Kuwait have been struck and airports remain closed, grounding aircraft from Emirates SkyCargo and Qatar Airways — two of the three largest cargo carriers by capacity — which together with Etihad represent about 13% of global air cargo capacity. These carriers’ hubs are a major connection point for a lot of global east-west cargo, and provide roughly a quarter of all China-Europe capacity.
Forwarders are already chartering direct Far East-West flights to compensate for lost capacity, with Kuehne + Nagel warning that backlogs of Europe and US-bound cargo in Asia could begin stacking up by end of the week; Freightos Air Index shows SEA-Europe rates up more than 6% to $3.82/kg since Friday, South Asia rates up 3% to Europe and 5% to the US, Middle East-Europe up 8% to $1.62/kg, and China-US up 15% to $6.90/kg, though some of the transpacific increase may reflect the post-LNY rebound rather than war disruptions alone.
