According to Xeneta, average spot freight rates declined across all main trades from the Far East during the week ending February 19. The analysis indicates a standard market development where falling spot rates are occurring alongside a slight increase in the available shipping capacity on routes to the United States.
Read also: Freight Market Enters 2026 with Cautious Optimism Amid Divergent Strategies
Specifically, the market average spot rate from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast was $1,889 per forty-foot container, down from $2,052 the prior week. The rate to the U.S. East Coast settled at $2,688 per container, a decrease from $2,882.
The trans-Pacific trade lane has been characterized by importers delaying shipments and carriers dealing with an oversupply of vessel space. Xeneta’s data showed a four-week rolling average of offered capacity as of February 16 increased by 2.7% on Asia-West Coast services and by 2.2% to the East Coast compared to the previous week.
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This market uncertainty arrives as shipping lines begin annual contract negotiations with cargo owners. Following a difficult 2025 that saw year-on-year profit decreases for major public carriers, an anticipated push for higher contracted rates may be undermined if demand remains weak due to economic concerns exacerbated by tariffs.
Other major Asian trade routes also experienced rate softening, but under different conditions. On the Far East to North Europe lane, spot rates continued to fall even though offered capacity decreased week-on-week, signaling a particularly weak market. This development is notable given that China developed substantial export markets in Europe during 2025 after tariffs significantly reduced shipping volumes to the U.S.
Xeneta’s chief analyst projected that 2026 is expected to be a year defined by overcapacity in container shipping, a situation that will be intensified by a large-scale return of services to the Red Sea. However, rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could influence this dynamic, particularly if it leads to a resumption of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea by Houthi militia. Even without a full escalation of conflict, military posturing and rhetoric from political leaders could affect regional security and cause carriers to delay plans to resume Red Sea transits. Such a delay would postpone the wider return of container shipping to that route and alleviate overcapacity pressures for carriers later into 2026.
In a separate lane, the spot rate from North Europe to the U.S. East Coast saw a slight increase to $1,492 per container from $1,484 the previous week, occurring alongside a capacity reduction of nearly 10%.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
