There is a clear divergence between contract and spot markets in the European road freight sector in Q4 2025, according to the latest findings from Upply, Transport Intelligence (Ti), and IRU in their European Road Freight Rates Index report.
Contract rates climbed to 136.9, representing a 2.6-point increase quarter-on-quarter and a 3.1-point rise year-on-year. In contrast, spot rates edged up slightly to 135.1, posting a modest 0.3-point quarterly gain but registering a 3.3-point decline compared to the same period last year.
While HGV registrations fell 6.2 per cent year-on-year in 2025, they actually increased 15.7 per cent in the final quarter of 2025, as against in Q3. An increase in new capacity hitting the market would have a downwards pressure on rates.
Coupled with new HGVs hitting the market, more trucks are being kept on the road: average vehicle age is increasing across the EU, from 12.5 to 14 years, a 10.7 per cent year-on-year increase, according to the latest data from the ACEA. Truck ages in Germany and France were (9.4) and (9.6 ) years old respectively, and Spain has slightly older trucks on average (11.1 years) old. Greece had the oldest truck fleet (22.9 years). By contrast, the newest fleets are found in Austria (7.4 years) and Luxembourg (7.7 years).
Across the EU, liquid fuels have traditionally been taxed at roughly the same rate regardless of how much carbon they emit, though some countries have incentivised biofuels through tax breaks. The EU’s Fit for 55 package proposes a major shift: taxing fuels based on their actual climate impact rather than treating them all equally.
As for prices, diesel has seen modest movement recently: up 2.2 per cent from last month, down 0.81 per cent over the quarter, and down 3.49 per cent year-on-year. Looking ahead, BMI Research forecasts global diesel and gasoil prices will average around $94 per barrel in 2026, a decline from both their earlier 2025 projections and previous years’ levels. Overall, this category is expected to have a downwards pressure on European road freight rates.
Driver shortages continue to push wages upward. According to the IRU’s driver shortage survey, the industry is 444,000 drivers short, with retirements and career changes outpacing new entrants.
Consumer spending is expected to grow modestly, around 1.2-1.3 per cent in 2026, according to KPMG forecasts, but high savings rates suggest cautious behavior persists.
Business demand has a more mixed outlook. The January 2026 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.4 from December’s 48.8, but remains below the 50 threshold that signals expansion. A lackluster busy season means restocking rates appear tepid.
However, global trade disruption may shift the picture. Ongoing tariff tensions and product dumping are likely to drive a surge in Chinese imports into the EU as manufacturers seek alternative markets, potentially boosting freight volumes despite weak domestic demand.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)
