Peshkov
ID 190259760
© Daniil Peshkov
Artificial intelligence in air cargo is typically framed as a productivity tool, but it could also be used by smaller forwarders to regain leverage from airlines, according to Chris Condon, founder of Aircon.
Mr Condon spoke to The Loadstar on the sidelines of Manifest in Las Vegas last week about how AI could be a useful tool in air cargo for faster quoting, automated booking, and improved visibility.
But outside these traditional use-cases, he added, AI could reshape market dynamics for SME air cargo forwarders.
“Airlines are leveraging all of us,” he said. “They want predictability and volume. The larger forwarders can give them that. The smaller guys are fighting over the same pieces of freight and absorbing the volatility.”
In today’s market, airlines typically secure 70%-80% of capacity through predictable contracts and block space agreements (BSAs), while the remaining space is sold dynamically. And that last 20% to 30% is where small and mid-sized forwarders often operate – and where rate volatility hits hardest, according to Mr Condon.
He explained that AI solutions could aggregate fragmented SME volumes and optimise routing decisions in real time, effectively creating a digital consortium.
“If there are 10 of us, why aren’t we putting our volume together to leverage the airline?” he asked.
“At the end of the day, that’s what we’re doing – creating the muscle to give small to mid-sized forwarders leverage against carriers.”
But he underscored that collaboration was still a “cultural hurdle” in an industry driven by proprietary networks and bilateral relationships.
“Everyone wants to keep everything close to their chest… but fragmentation is exactly what keeps smaller forwarders at a disadvantage,” he said.
Beyond collective buying power, Mr Condon argued that AI could also address structural inefficiencies in quoting and execution.
He explained that many forwarders were still pricing shipments without full visibility of airline capacity, trucking availability, or service constraints, leading to margin erosion and service failures.
“Automation without fixing the incentives just makes failure happen faster,” he said. “If you’re quoting blind, speeding it up doesn’t solve the problem.”
Instead, he advocates what he calls a “decision layer” approach, where predefined service level agreements, cost thresholds. and escalation points allow systems to make adjustments in real time, while keeping humans in the loop when margins or transit times fall outside agreed parameters.
He said there was a growing interest in these models – driven less by tariffs or trade disruption and more by margin compression and volatility in spot pricing. As with airlines continuing to rely on dynamic pricing for a significant share of capacity, he explained that smaller forwarders faced increasing unpredictability in both costs and space.
