Air cargo demand escalated 4.3 percent in December, capping off one of 2025’s strongest months and closing out a volatile year characterized by a changing of the guard in global trade flows.
Full-year demand increased by 3.4 percent, further signaling a move towards growth normalization, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The number is well off the record-high 11.3 percent air cargo demand growth experienced in 2024, driven largely by an e-commerce export push out of China from companies like Shein and Temu.
IATA measures demand in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs).
While shifts in U.S. trade policy like the end of the de minimis provision and White House-imposed tariffs caused a 0.8 percent dip in Asia-to-North America air freight throughout 2025, other trade lanes were able to pick up the slack.
International operations saw 5.4 percent growth in CTKs, led by Asia Pacific airlines surging 10.7 percent in December. For the full year, international flights also held up the wider demand figures at 4.2 percent growth.
“Air cargo rose to the occasion,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, in a statement. “It adapted quickly to support global businesses and supply chains as they front-loaded product deliveries ahead of tariff impositions and adjusted to rising demand within Asia and between Asia and Europe as U.S.-Asia trade stagnated.”
Demand within Asian countries surged 13.6 percent year over year last month, marking the fourth double-digit growth month of 2025 and the second consecutive month of expansion. The Europe-to-Asia corridor recorded a 12.2 percent annual December increase, marking its strongest December performance since 2016.
“For operators, the strength of intra-Asia traffic reinforces the operational advantages of dense regional networks with high utilization and shorter cycle times,” IATA’s December air cargo market analysis read. “Overall, the end-2025 picture is one of broad international expansion accompanied by pronounced corridor rotation. While demand growth remains intact, market share is redistributed away from policy-exposed lanes toward structurally resilient routes.”
Despite the year’s ongoing struggles on the Asia-to-North America route, the final months saw continued stabilization. Demand growth increased 0.6 percent year-over-year in December, after a 1.8 percent annual improvement in CTKs in November. These two months followed six straight months of contractions in demand.
Across all of 2025, the 3.4 percent air cargo demand growth did not quite reach IATA’s initial expectations of a 6 percent increase in CTKs, but it did outpace the association’s modified demand target of 0.7 percent CTK growth predicted in June.
For 2026, air cargo demand growth measured in CTKs is expected to moderate slightly to 2.6 percent, while total freight carried will see a 2.4 percent jump to 71.6 million metric tons.
“We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” said Walsh. “Whatever trading patterns emerge, we can be confident that reliance on air cargo to keep global supply chains running will remain, with carriers responding to the challenge by deploying capacity and designing their networks for optimum flexibility.”
Global cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), outpaced demand growth by swelling 4.5 percent compared to the year-ago month.
However, the capacity growth represents a split market. While Asia Pacific and African airlines expanded ACTKs by 8.3 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively, North America contracted by 2.6 percent. European carriers fell in between, with moderate capacity increases of 3.9 percent.
Full-year capacity in 2025 increased by 3.7 percent compared to 2024. Like demand, international airlines buoyed the total capacity increase at 5.1 percent growth in cargo space.
Additionally, IATA noted that full-year air freight rates fell 1.5 percent year over year to $2.44 on average. This is the smallest decline in three years, with IATA attributing it to a more normal supply-demand balance as stronger yields of the Covid-19 pandemic and fallout continue to taper.
Despite competitive pressure capping air cargo’s pricing power, yields remain 37.2 percent above 2019 levels.
In December, air freight rates fell 2.6 percent, marking the eighth consecutive annual contraction and the smallest reduction since July 2025.
Aiding in the cost declines, jet fuel prices fell 3.1 percent in December and averaged 9.1 percent lower in 2025 than in 2024. However, elevated pricing differences between a barrel of crude oil and the refined fuels meant the refiners captured more margin, offsetting part of the benefit for airlines.
