As Lunar New Year approaches, ocean freight rates continue to fall as carriers seek to fill up empty space on their cargo vessels ahead of the two-week holiday.
According to a report from container shipping consultancy Linerlytica, ocean carriers are slashing rates “more aggressively before the holidays,” which are set to begin Feb. 17.
Although January typically sees a rush to get goods out of China before factories throughout the country close for the holidays, the post-Christmas period is expected to be lighter than usual for U.S. imports due to previous front-loading ahead of the winter.
Recent data from benchmarking firms like Drewry and the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) have shown declining weekly freight rates through the latter portion of January.
The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) decreased 9.5 percent to $2,212 per 40-foot container for the second consecutive week as of Thursday, primarily due to a drop in rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-to-Europe trade routes.
Spot rates for cargo traveling from Shanghai to New York sank 11 percent to $3,191 per 40-foot container, while those from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 12 percent to $2,546 per 40-foot box.
According to the company, ocean carriers increased blank sailings during that week to counter softening demand following the end of the Lunar New Year cargo rush.
The SCFI, which releases its weekly data on Fridays, dropped by 7.4 percent to $1,458 per 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU).
The index observed similar declines on the Shanghai-to-U.S. East Coast route of 9 percent, taking average rates down to $2,896 per 40-foot container. Forty-foot containers moving from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast declined 5 percent to $2,084 on average.
Both indices tracked declines in spot rates on Asia-to-Europe trade routes.
For Drewry, shipments from Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped 9 percent to $2,510, while those going to Genoa fell 8 percent to $3,520.
Meanwhile, SCFI observed Shanghai-to-Northern Europe rates decline 5 percent to $1,595 per TEU, or $2,607 per 40-foot container.
Drewry expects freight rates to decline further in the coming weeks. Linerlytica agreed, noting in a Monday update that liner operators are discounting to fill empty slots on the Asia-to-Europe track ahead of the Lunar New Year.
“Further weakness is coming, with rates slipping further to below $2,200 per 40-foot container, as carriers [are] eager to build up cargo pools ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday abandon plans for a rate hike on Feb. 1,” the update read.
According to the post, if a further escalation in Middle East tensions results in a delay in the return to the Suez Canal, it may not be sufficient to slow down the decline as rates are expected to remain weak after the holidays in the Far East.
Linerlytica pointed out that CMA CGM’s decision to reroute three services away from the Suez Canal will be temporary for one of the weekly loops, French Asia Line 1 (FAL 1).
CMA CGM is still using the Suez route on the FAL1 for two more eastbound sailings on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1, with regular transits still scheduled to resume from April 6 after an eight-week hiatus.
The French ocean carrier will also retain Suez transits in both directions on the India America Express (INDAMEX) and the Phoenician Express (BEX2), the company said, with the latter having been in regular rotation for CMA CGM since July 2024.
While some industry analysts have speculated the moves have been security driven, Linerlytica ascertained that CMA CGM doesn’t need to go back through the canal so quickly since the eastbound sailing only includes empty containers. Additionally, the company is signaling to competitors to delay any large-scale return to the Red Sea due to concerns about oversupply.
“As subsequent sailings from Europe will no longer be able to reach China in time for the Lunar New Year], there is therefore no incentive to CMA CGM to continue with these eastbound voyages via Suez,” said Linerlytica.
While CMA CGM has its own limited plans, Maersk has resuming its scheduled service from India to the U.S. East Coast via the canal.
“These conflicting operational decisions suggest that effective shipping capacity will be reintroduced to the market gradually rather than all at once,” said Drewry in its Thursday update. “This ‘drip-feed’ approach allows carriers to carefully assess risk and adjust their future networks, preventing a catastrophic collapse in spot rates.”
